You may have seen a recent Redfin article, widely picked up by national news outlets, claiming there are half a million more sellers than buyers in today’s housing market. While the headline is attention-grabbing, the figures are based on questionable methodology and don’t reflect what’s actually happening in most markets. Let’s break it down.

Where the Numbers Don’t Add Up

Redfin reported 1.94 million “sellers” and estimated only 1.45 million buyers. This creates the impression that inventory is surging and buyers are scarce, while also attempting to drive fear of another housing crash. But several issues undermine this claim:

• Redfin calculates buyers using a custom formula based on how long it takes to buy a home, rather than actual buyer counts.
• Realtor.com reported just 959,000 active listings in April and 1.036 million in May, both far below Redfin’s seller figure.
• NAR reported 1.45 million homes in inventory, but nearly 400,000 of those were already under contract and not truly available.

What About New Construction?

• Builders have roughly 504,000 homes in inventory, but only 117,000 are move-in ready.
• Most of the remaining inventory is either not started or still under construction.

Bottom Line: Headlines Are Misleading

Redfin’s numbers rely on estimates and assumptions that stretch the truth. Realtor.com and NAR provide more grounded data based on MLS figures, which show that inventory is still limited, not overflowing.

And remember, real estate is highly local. Depending on where you live, buyer competition and inventory levels can vary dramatically. National headlines rarely tell the full story for your market.

What It Means for Buyers and Agents

• For buyers: While there may be more negotiating power due to increased inventory, quality homes are still moving quickly and competition remains.
• For sellers and agents: Pricing, presentation, and buyer incentives are still key to success in today’s market.

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