An Investment Opportunity

In the mid-1980s, comedian Jackie Mason told a story about a man complaining that he'd missed his chance to buy a home years earlier, back when it was cheap. Asked, "What about buying today?" the man replied, "Are you nuts? It's much too expensive!"

The joke captures a mindset that still shows up in today's housing market: there always seems to be a reason to wait. Since 2019, many 2012–2020-era buyers have stayed locked into low mortgage rates rather than sell, which has kept inventory tight. But with more properties coming onto the market in 2026, we're seeing downward price pressure — which translates into better affordability for buyers.

1. Home Inventory (King County, WA), 2019–2026

●       NWMLS annual figures

●       2019–2021 figures are estimates based on NWMLS regional totals

The Home Purchasing Challenge

As average mortgage rates have climbed from a low of 3% in 2021 to 6.3% as of August 2026, homeownership has become harder to reach for many buyers. The table below shows how the math has shifted for a typical King County purchase:

Property taxes and insurance push the 2026 monthly figure to roughly $5,200 — a significant portion of most families' disposable income, and about $19,000 more per year than in 2021.

2. Median Home Prices (King County, WA) vs. Average Mortgage Rates, 2015–2026

●       FHFA House Price Index for King County

●       NWMLS annual figures

●       Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30-year fixed, annual averages)

A Wider Perspective

If your goal is to own a home — or move into a larger one to accommodate a growing family — timing is an important consideration.

The shock of interest rates more than doubling since 2021 led many prospective buyers to expect a quick reversal, and to wait on the sidelines for it. However, persistent inflation and elevated 10-year bond yields suggest that meaningful rate relief may not arrive soon. Some analysts don't rule out further increases before the end of 2026: Morgan Stanley Research notes that markets are currently pricing in at least one rate hike this year, though the firm's own house view is that the Fed holds rates steady.

Meanwhile, home prices tell a different story. Between 2019 and 2025, King County median home prices far outpaced inflation — but since then, prices have pulled back about 9%, bringing them roughly back in line with it.

3. Median Home Prices (King County, WA) vs. Inflation, 2019–2026

●       NWMLS annual figures

●       CPI Inflation Index

Weighing Your Options

For prospective buyers, market sentiment has shifted, and many are finding more room to negotiate than in recent years. Whether now is the right moment depends on your personal finances, timeline, and goals — but a few strategies can help make monthly costs more manageable in the current rate environment:

●       Consider lower-cost property types, including condominiums (factoring in HOA costs).

●       Reduce revolving debt where possible — this can raise your credit score and may qualify you for a better mortgage rate.

●       Increase your down payment if you're able to.

●       Some 401(k) plans allow borrowing against them, effectively paying interest to yourself — consult a financial planner before taking this step.

●       Ask about a rate buydown, which offers a lower rate for the first year or years. If rates decline or your credit profile improves afterward, you can refinance.

Mannes Neuer, Mortgage Loan Originator, NMLS #2528456

Contact me for your home mortgage needs.

Mannes Neuer | NMLS #2528456 | Barrett Financial Group, L.L.C. | NMLS #181106 | 2701 East Insight Way, Suite 150, Chandler, AZ 85286 | WA MB-181106 | Equal Housing Opportunity | Equal Housing Lender | This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval.

NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/181106

Eligibility requirements vary by loan program.